Sports States

Where is LeBron Hated Most?

What’s the epicenter of anti-LeBron sentiment in America? Cleveland would seem a logical choice after their hometown hero infamously dashed off to South Beach a couple years back. But though many Ohioans still bristle at the mere mention of the word “witness,” their animosity toward James has been surpassed by that of fans a couple states to the west in Illinois. Bulls fans, who had their title hopes crushed last year by LeBron and Co. and may again see the Heat in this year’s playoffs, are the least, well, bullish, on LeBron according to a few recent ESPN SportsNation polls. 

Let’s take a look at a recent poll about LeBron’s amazing performance in New Jersey, where he scored Miami’s last 17 points to beat a stunned Nets team.

Most of the country thought his outburst was a good sign for Miami’s chances in the upcoming playoffs. The only states where his performance was considered a fluke were those harboring title contenders themselves. Fans of Western Conference powers like the Spurs, Mavs, Lakers and Thunder all generally voted in favor of a “fluke” designation, and the sentiment was even greater among Celtics fans in the Northeast. The place where it was strongest, though? Illinois, where almost 3/5 of voters were largely unimpressed with LeBron’s work. In Ohio, almost half of respondents think LeBron is peaking at the right time.

In fact, nowadays more residents of the Illini state think The Decision was the wrong one than those in any other state, including Ohio.

What does this changing of the guard in the anti-LeBron hierarchy mean? There are probably lots of potential explanations, but one strong possibility is that it’s hard to stay angry without consistent provocation. LeBron may have stabbed Clevelanders in the heart, but that wound’s been healing for almost two years now, and it’s not like his absence is the only thing keeping the Cavaliers back these days. Chicagoans, on the other hand, know that James could be the one thing standing between their powerhouse team and a championship, and the idea of being burned by the Heat again acts like a daily, maddening paper cut.

Few Pity Petrino

Bobby Petrino may have been the top Hog, but it was his inability to stay atop his hog that led to his firing. A motorcycle crash not only resulted in facial abrasions and broken vertebrae and ribs, but also led to revelations of infidelity, deceit, and the hiring of a mistress. Adding insult to injury, Arkansas AD Jeff Long harshly dressed down Petrino in announcing the dismissal. 

Most Americans agreed with Long’s decision; some 73 percent in an ESPN Sportsnation poll thought canning the coach was warranted. A majority of respondents in every state favored the firing, though some states were particularly unforgiving of Petrino’s indiscretions. In the days leading up to Long’s announcement, some Razorback fans had demonstrated in support of Petrino, who had won 21 games over the last two years and was returning a team thought to be among the contenders for this year’s national title. But after Long’s emotional press conference, 78 percent of Arkansans agreed with the firing - the third highest rate in the country.

The only two states where firing Petrino was more popular than in Arkansas? Georgia, whose Atlanta Falcons were jilted mid-season by Petrino four years ago, topped the country in anti-Petrino sentiment. Utah, which has a penchant for passing moral judgement, was a close second. 

Nevadans Understand Odds Better Than the Rest of the Country Does

The only state in the country with completely legalized sports gambling is Nevada, home to both Sin City and the Biggest Little City in the World. Nevada bookmakers set the lines for all sorts of individual and team sporting events, and, either through direct experience or cultural osmosis, its residents seem to know more about odds than folks from the rest of the country.

This extra knowledge shows up in subtle but significant ways. It’s most obvious when ESPN asks its readers to vote on who they think will win large tournaments. Nevadans seem to be more cognizant of the fact that simply because someone is the “favorite” in one of these competitions does not mean that he is likely to be the winner. It just means that he is more likely than any one else to win. But when matched up against the rest of the field as a whole, he’s often at a big disadvantage.

Let’s take golf. Even though Tiger Woods has the best odds of any golfer to win The Masters, he’s not even close to being favored against the field (he’s currently at odds of 9/2). When ESPN asked whether Tiger or “the field” would win the tournament, a slight majority of people in the country picked the field. But Nevadans were by far the most pessimistic about his chances; only one third of them think he’ll pull it off.

At the start of last year, ESPN asked its readers whether Tiger would win a major championship in 2011. Two thirds of American voters said yes, but Nevadans, perhaps with an eye to the odds, were the least gung ho about his chances.

This preference for the field holds true in other large tournaments as well. Nevadans are the least likely to believe Federer will win another Wimbledon in his career, and the least optimistic that Rick Pitino will win a national championship at Louisville before his contract ends in 2017.

In all of these cases, Nevadans are more pessimistic (or at least probablistic) about the performance potential of a specific person or team in a tournament than voters in the rest of the country. This isn’t because Silver Staters have some sort of insider knowledge of sports; rather, it’s because more of them understand how odds work.

Tim Tebow and Red State America

Last time we checked in on Tim Tebow, we found that there is no red state/blue state divide when it comes to wishing him success; a large majority of people across the nation said they were rooting for him, regardless of whether they were in Alabama or Vermont.

When it comes to Tebow’s ability to help the Jets, though, that national coalition fractures. A very slim plurality of all voters in a recent SportsNation poll think that Timsanity in the Big Apple will have a mostly negative effect on the Jets. That negative feeling is highest in New England, the Mid-Atlantic region (New York included!), the mid-West, and the West coast.

In the Southeast, Southwest, and Mountain regions, though, the trend is reversed. In almost every state in those regions, a significant plurality of the voters think that Tebow will make the Jets a better team.

If this map looks familiar to you, that might be because it matches up pretty closely with the electoral map of the 2008 presidential election. Alas for Tebow, he’s in McCain’s shoes in this one. (Even if he ends up pulling out both Washington and Iowa, he’ll still lose the electoral vote.) So while everyone wants Tim to succeed, it seems only mid-America has faith in him.